Hot-hand fallacy
The hot-hand fallacy is believing that someone on a winning streak is more likely to keep succeeding, even when each attempt is largely independent. It is the mirror image of the gambler's fallacy, and while some real streakiness does seem to exist in sports, a short lucky run is easily mistaken for the real thing.
A 2018 reanalysis found a statistical flaw in the classic basketball studies, so researchers now debate how much of the belief in hot streaks is really a fallacy.
In everyday life
A basketball crowd yells for the ball to go to a player who has made three shots in a row, even though a teammate is usually the better shooter.
A friend has picked the winner of the last four office football pools, so you copy all her picks this week, sure she can't miss right now.
Why your mind does this
Our ancestors survived by spotting patterns fast: rustling grass might mean a predator, and dark clouds meant rain. Filling gaps with a plausible story lets us act on thin information instead of freezing. A brain that sometimes sees a pattern that isn't there loses less than one that misses a real threat.
Its family, in 30 seconds: Stories & patterns
How to spot it
Ask whether a recent run of success reflects real skill or a lucky stretch that will likely fade.
How to counter it
Judge a person or strategy by the long-term average, and treat short streaks as mostly noise.
Same family: Stories & patterns
SourcesGilovich et al. (1985)·Wikipedia