Neglect of probability
Neglect of probability is ignoring how likely something is when making a decision under uncertainty. We react to how bad or good an outcome would feel and treat tiny and moderate chances as if they were the same.
A large 2018 replication did not confirm a key experiment behind this idea, so researchers still debate how strongly emotion makes us ignore the odds.
In everyday life
After news of a plane crash, someone drives a long distance instead of flying, even though the drive carries more risk than the flight.
You refuse to swim in the ocean all summer after watching a shark movie, yet you check your phone while driving to the beach every day.
Why your mind does this
Our ancestors survived by spotting patterns fast: rustling grass might mean a predator, and dark clouds meant rain. Filling gaps with a plausible story lets us act on thin information instead of freezing. A brain that sometimes sees a pattern that isn't there loses less than one that misses a real threat.
Its family, in 30 seconds: Stories & patterns
How to spot it
Ask whether you know the actual odds, or are only reacting to how scary or exciting the outcome feels.
How to counter it
Write a rough estimate of the odds next to each option and compare them before deciding.
Same family: Stories & patterns
SourcesSunstein (2002)·Wikipedia