Outcome bias

In everyday life

A manager praises an employee who skipped safety checks because nothing went wrong, and criticizes one who followed every rule but was hit by bad weather.

Your friend put all her savings on one risky bet and it paid off, so you now call her a brilliant investor and think about copying her approach.

Why your mind does this

Imagining the past and the future is hard, so the brain uses the present as a template. Assuming things will stay roughly as they are now is a quick and usually workable guide. Making sense of events after the fact also helps us learn lessons and feel in control.

Its family, in 30 seconds: Projecting ourselves

How to spot it

Ask whether the decision was sensible given what was known then, whatever the result.

How to counter it

Write down your reasons before making a decision, and review those reasons later alongside the result.

Habits that catch it

• Grade decisions by what you knew

  Good choices can end badly and bad ones can get lucky. Judge the reasoning with the information available at the time.